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Claus Lehmann
Site Admin
Anmeldedatum: 31.08.2007
Beiträge: 17514
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 Verfasst am: 22.03.2014, 01:20 Titel: Zidisha News und Status |
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Eben gekommen
| Zitat: |
Dear lender,
I am writing to inform you that a portion of one or more of the loans you funded through Zidisha has been categorized as written off under our new write-off policy.
Up until now, we have written off only the amounts still outstanding for loans whose final due dates have passed six months ago or more. This write-off policy was in keeping with general microfinance reporting standards, but it turned out to be inadequate for Zidisha, because we allow borrowers the flexibility to reschedule repayment due dates. This resulted in under-reporting of write-off rates in cases where the final installment due date is extended by rescheduling.
For a long time, we corrected for this under-reporting by manually reviewing and writing off early the loans which we considered unlikely to be recovered, even if their scheduled write-off date had not yet arrived. Now, at over 5000 loans, our lending volume has grown too large to ensure thorough manual reviews of all past due amounts.
For this reason, we have modified our write-off policy to include all amounts due for loans in which payments have not been made for over six months, in addition to amounts due for loans whose final due date passed six months ago. Instead of manual reviews and write-offs, the Zidisha website now automates write-offs of all amounts that are due to be written off under this definition.
I believe that we have done our utmost, within the limits of our budget and operating model, to recover the amounts that have been written off. For each of these loans, I can confirm that we have sent multiple email and SMS messages requesting mediation or repayment to the mobile phone numbers of the borrowers and to all of the contacts collected at the time the borrowers were admitted to Zidisha, including the community leaders who referred them to Zidisha, their family, their neighbors, their work colleagues, the Zidisha member who invited them to join if any, and their Volunteer Mentors.
In most cases, our international volunteer team, our local Volunteer Mentors and myself have personally telephoned or visited the borrowers as well. Many of these efforts and information we have been able to find out were posted in the borrowers' profile pages. At other times, the volunteer opted not to post the information publicly in order to protect the privacy of the borrower.
In a few cases in which default appeared to be deliberate, we have attempted to work with local collection agencies or with the local police to recover past due amounts. These efforts have all failed, despite considerable time and money spent, due to corrupt or dysfunctional local legal systems.
Much more frequently than deliberate default, we consider the past due amounts to be unlikely to be recovered because the borrower has suffered a severe financial or health catastrophe, or is simply too destitute to spare substantial money for repayments. Despite everyone's best intentions, it happens very often in developing countries that businesses fail, assets are lost or stolen, and family members need expensive medical treatment.
The vast majority of the borrowers whose loans were written off joined us at a time when our membership criteria were very different than today. Most of them would not have been admitted at all under today's standards, or would have been admitted with much smaller starting loan sizes.
Over the past year we have made many improvements to our lending model based on experience. These include:
Prohibiting the practice of posting loan applications on behalf of non computer users, with whom communication often becomes difficult when the helpers are no longer available to follow up with repayments.
Requiring new members in most countries to prove online identity by linking a unique, actively used Facebook account.
Sending automated SMS confirmation requests to all community leader, inviter, family and neighbor contacts provided by applicants.
Requesting Volunteer Mentors to review separately the applications of all new members assigned to them, before approving their loans.
Using the performance of other Zidisha members connected with new applicants - invitees of their inviters, other members recommended by their community leader, and so forth - to evaluate the credit risk of new applications.
Using a state-of-the-art anti-fraud software to detect suspicious patterns in new borrower applications.
Reducing the standard first loan amount for uninvited members to just $50, and requiring consistent on-time repayments over time to progress to larger loan amounts.
Adjusting our loan size progression criteria to eliminate loopholes that became apparent with time and experience.
Introducing a new member invite program that incentivizes high on-time repayment rates by inviters and invitees alike.
Zidisha is the first organization in the world to attempt direct person-to-person lending across international borders. There is no road map of best practices to follow. We are learning these lessons only with experience. Had we known at the outset what we have learned now, most of the loans that have been written off would not have been made, or would have been made for much smaller amounts.
I sincerely apologize that we were not able to recover these loans. Please do not hesitate to contact me with any comments or questions.
Best regards,
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Ich kann diesen Schritt zwar verstehen, danach sieht man aber die drastischen Auswirkungen auf das Portfolio.
Von ehemals 20,91 US$ (ja war nur ein minimaler Versuchsballon)
sind
bei mir noch 9,79 US$ Principal outstanding. D.h. der Rest ist durch write-offs als uneinbringlich abgeschrieben.
Also trotz Zinsen mehr als 50% Verlust.
Von meinen Krediten sind
22 Kredite abgeschlossen & vollständig zurückgezahlt
9 Kredite nach teilweisen ahlungen abgeschrieben
1 Kredit ohne jede Rückzahlung abgeschrieben
8 Kredite noch laufend
1 vor Auszahlung (hab vorhin erst geboten).
Nach den Erfahrungen mit MYC4 und Zidisha ist mein Fazit das P2P Mikrokredite nicht funktionieren - zumindest nicht wenn man es aus kommerziellen Motiven macht. Man kann es natürlich immer noch als Spende oder Entwicklungshilfe sehen - dann kann man aber auch Kiva in Betracht ziehen, denn wie gesehen sind die Ergebnisse bei Zidisha und MYC4 trotz Zinsen negativ.
_________________
Meine Investments (aktualisiert 03/22):
Laufend: Bondora*, Investly*, Estateguru*, Ablrate*, Moneything* (Rest), Crowdestate* (Rest), Fellow Finance* (Rest), October* (Rest), Linked Finance*, Lenndy* (Rest), Assetz*, Plenti, Neofinance* (Rest), Lendermarket*,
Beendet: Smava*, Auxmoney*, MyC4, Zidisha, Crosslend*, Lendico*, Omarahee, Lendy*, Bondmason, Finbee*, Bulkestate*, Zlty, Mintos*, Iuvo*, Robocash*, Viainvest*, Viventor*
Crowdinvesting: Seedrs*, Crowdcube, Housers* (Rest), Reinvest24*, Landex* |
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Claus Lehmann
Site Admin
Anmeldedatum: 31.08.2007
Beiträge: 17514
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| Verfasst am: 13.06.2014, 23:20 Titel: Re: Zidisha News und Status |
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Zidisha hat jetzt mehr Zahlen veröffentlicht.
http://p2p-microlending-blog.zidisha.org/2014/06/13/is-direct-p2p-microlending-financially-sustainable-lessons-from-zidisha/
Das Ganze wird zwar positiv dargestellt, für mich ist das Fazit aus den Zahlen aber, dass Zidisha im Regelfall für Anleger ein Verlusgeschäft ist.
| Zitat: | At Zidisha, we are pioneering something that has never before been tried: direct person-to-person lending across international borders, without any local bank intermediaries, loan officers, or brick-and-mortar offices. It’s a disruptive innovation that has dramatically reduced the cost of lending to the world’s most marginalized communities.
Web-based P2P microlending is so different from traditional staff-intensive microlending methods that developing it has involved a lot of trial and error. With no road map to follow, experience was the only way to know for sure what would work. Since founding Zidisha in 2009, we have continuously adjusted our lending model in response to actual user behavior.
This is a by no means exhaustive list of the changes we have made in the past year alone:
Requiring loan applicants in most countries to link a unique Facebook account to verify their online identity and make it more difficult for third parties to create proxy accounts
No longer requiring loan applicants to have a credit history with a local bank in order to join Zidisha, as this proved too difficult to reliably verify
Enlisting the help of fellow borrowers to mentor new members and follow up on repayments, as many borrowers were keen to volunteer and play a larger role in the Zidisha community
No longer contracting with local organizations to perform credit checks, as this was difficult to scale without opening the door to bribery
Using an invite bonus program to encourage borrowers in good standing to invite trustworthy new members
Relaxing admittance criteria (which had been too easy to game in practice), and reducing the size of first-time Zidisha loans to limit losses until a borrower has proved their reliability
Establishing strict on-time repayment performance standards in order to progress to the next loan size
Displaying on-time repayment scores on each loan page to encourage borrowers to keep this metric high
Replacing recommendation forms signed by community leaders with SMS verification of loan applicant identities with family and neighbors
Using machine learning to detect fraudulent applications
Transitioning from monthly to weekly repayment schedules in most countries, as it proved easier for most borrowers to make small weekly payments than to save up bulk sums each month
This graph tracks changes in on-time repayment rates at Zidisha since we initiated most of these changes:
Image Notes:
Since the timeliness of the first repayment installments correlates with the ultimate on-time repayment rate of Zidisha loans, we track that as an early indicator of changes in credit risk. This graph depicts the timely repayment of both first installments, and cumulative installments for all loans issued during the time period in the x axis.
The graph does not track whether the installments were ultimately repaid, only whether they were repaid on time.
“Repaid on time” is here defined as paid within ten days of the due date, within a threshold of $10 of the amount due.
You may view the loan data used to generate this graph here.
We estimate that the ultimate repayment rate for loans that were issued in early 2013 will be between 70% and 85%. (We do not know more precisely because many of them are still repaying.) Many lenders who funded loans at low interest rates during that period saw the value of their funds decline as unpaid loans were written off.
What is less obvious to our long-time observers is that credit risk at Zidisha has improved substantially over the past year. If the timeliness of the first repayment installments continue to predict the ultimate repayment likelihood of Zidisha loans, then the loans that are being issued today will have substantially higher repayment rates than those issued a year ago. If we assume that the ultimate repayment rate will improve in proportion to the timeliness of the first repayment installments, an ultimate repayment rate of between 85% and 95% would be a reasonable prediction. Thanks to this improvement, it is entirely possible that lenders who fund loans at modest interest rates today will be able to maintain or increase the value of their lending funds over time.
An interesting case in point is the Zidisha Matching Loan Fund. This $10,000 fund uses our automated lending tool to match, dollar for dollar, bids made manually by Zidisha lenders at the same interest rates originally bid by the manual lenders. It is therefore a reasonable proxy for the lending experience of a typical Zidisha lender.
The Matching Loan Fund began lending in February 2014. Since then, the fund has distributed $15,253 to 568 different loan projects. (The amount distributed is more than the $10,000 put into the fund because repaid funds are recycled to new projects.)
Of those 568 loans, 128 have been repaid. In total $2,030 had been disbursed to those projects, and they repaid $2,295. Returns from interest plus currency fluctuations were $265, or 13% of the value of the amount disbursed.
Untitled
The remainder of the loans are still outstanding. Of the $13,223 disbursed, $3,155 has been repaid, and $10,329 is principal outstanding – so the loan fund has gained a further $261 from interest and currency fluctuations realized thus far for the loans still outstanding.
In all, the fund has gained $526, or 5.2%, of the original $10,000, in the past four months. If current trends continue, the fund will gain more than 15% of its original value in interest net of currency fluctuations.
Net returns will almost certainly be lower than 15%, because some portion of the loans outstanding will likely be lost to borrower misfortune or default. Zidisha has not been around for long enough to predict losses with certainty. But if the overall repayment rate is above 85%, then gains are likely to exceed losses.
Zidisha is intended as a platform for philanthropy only. We do not recommend it as a commercial investment because the risks inherent in such a new lending model probably outweigh any possible financial return. It is certainly not a safe place to store assets one cannot afford to lose.
But it is reasonable to expect that the majority of lenders who fund a diversified selection of loan projects today will be able to maintain the value of their funds over time, so that they can continue to offer life-improving loans at affordable rates to many more deserving entrepreneurs. The resulting humanitarian impact makes Zidisha loans one of the best “investments” one can make. |
_________________
Meine Investments (aktualisiert 03/22):
Laufend: Bondora*, Investly*, Estateguru*, Ablrate*, Moneything* (Rest), Crowdestate* (Rest), Fellow Finance* (Rest), October* (Rest), Linked Finance*, Lenndy* (Rest), Assetz*, Plenti, Neofinance* (Rest), Lendermarket*,
Beendet: Smava*, Auxmoney*, MyC4, Zidisha, Crosslend*, Lendico*, Omarahee, Lendy*, Bondmason, Finbee*, Bulkestate*, Zlty, Mintos*, Iuvo*, Robocash*, Viainvest*, Viventor*
Crowdinvesting: Seedrs*, Crowdcube, Housers* (Rest), Reinvest24*, Landex* |
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